コントラリアンJ

人によって多様な見方があるからこそ相場が形成されます。皆さんはどう見ます？ Why Credit Suisse Sees 0% Returns Over The Next Decade by Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2020 - 18:01 The chart showing the 2 year ( not 1 year) forward P/E multiple on the S&P500, i.e., based on EPS from Dec 31, 202 1 , is now so ridiculous it barely fits in the chart let alone is worth to comment on. 下に示すチャートはSP500の２年先（一年先ではない）Forward P/Eを示す、すなわち、２０２１年１２月３１日のEPS予想に基づくものだ、これがいまでは奇妙なことにこのチャートが自然な形にならない、これは特筆すべきことだ。 And while one can argue that nobody cares about fundamentals in a world in which the economy, profits and markets all exist in a state of what BofA called a " Schrödinger Equilibrium " created by the Fed, Credit Suisse equity strategist Jonathan Golub just has trouble believing that we now live in a world in which PE multiple have reached a persistently high er plateau. だれもが指摘することだが、ファンダメンタルズに言及する人は居ない、経済、収益...

"Clueless Wizards" - Don't Worry, The Fed Has "Belts & Suspenders" by Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2020 - 12:25 Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, The Fed's balance sheet is approaching $7 trillion dollars. This is what Bernanke meant by suspenders. FEDのバランスシートは＄７Tに迫っている。これこそBernankeがサスペンダーにたとえたものだ。 On February 27, 2013, Ben Bernanke spoke to US Congress about how the Fed would unwind its balance sheet. ２０１３年２月２７日に、Ben Bernankeは米国議会証言でFEDが如何にバランスシート巻き戻しをするかの証言を行った。 Bernanke said,  We Have “Belts, Suspenders” to Unwind Balance Sheet  . Bernankeが言うには、我々はバランスシート巻き戻しのための「ベルトもサスペンダー」も有るという。 Bernanke’s vague answer to Sen. Richard Shelby, R-AL, when asked how the Fed will deleverage the balance sheet, was this: “ In terms of e...

最近の金鉱株ETFへの資金流出入を見るとこういう具合です。 GDXには資金が流入していますが、GDXJからは資金が流出しています。 これからどうなると思います？

Peter Schiffですからね、眉につばを付けながら読むように。 米国の日本化も話題になります、その場合はデフレスパイラルという結末です。ただ日本の場合は量的緩和はほとんどが日銀当座預金口座にブタ済みされており市中にでまわることがありませんでした。そのため、日本の量的緩和は金利だけに影響しました。今後米国で量的緩和資金がどこに向かうかに注目です。 Peter Schiff: People Will Be Wiped Out By The Inflation Tax by Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2020 - 10:25 Via SchiffGold.com, The printing presses are running at full speed as the Federal Reserve creates money out of thin air at an unprecedented rate. Peter Schiff recently appeared on Kitco News to talk about the impact of all money-printing, borrowing and government spending. Somebody has to pay for this and we all will. In fact, a lot of people will be wiped out by the inflation tax. 無から有を生み出すFEDの貨幣創造紙幣印刷は前代未聞の全速力で実行されている。Peter Schffは最近Kitco Newsでインタビューに答えた、話題は紙幣印刷、借金、そして政府支出の影響に関するものだ。誰かが付けを払わねばならず、...

Goldman Spots A Huge Problem For The Fed by Tyler Durden Fri, 05/15/2020 - 19:45 Last week, the Treasury shocked the world when it announced that in the current quarter (the 3rd of the fiscal year), the US will need to sell a mindblowing, record $3 trillion (pardon, $2.999 trillion) in Treasurys to finance the US money helicopter. 先週のことだ、財務省が世界を驚かせた、今四半期（会計年度Q3)において、米国はなんと記録的な額＄３Tの国債を売り出すのだ、米国でヘリコプターマネーを実行するために。 This, after selling $807 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, and another $677 billion in the quarter ending Sept 30. 会計年度前半に＄８０７Bを売却した後、さらに９月３０日までに＄６７７Bを売却するという。 And since it is just a matter of time before Congress has to pass yet another fiscal package which will be at least another trillion dollars, and up to $3 trillion if the Democrats get their wish, one can say that Guggenheim's projection of over $5 trillion in debt issuance this ca...

Billionaire VC Warns Fed Stimulus Risks Triggering "Deflationary Supercycle" That Could Crush Main Street by Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2020 - 15:45 Appearing for the third time in 6 weeks, Social Capital founder and former Facebook exec Chamath Palihapitiya joined the hosts of CNBC's "Squawk Box" for an interview Tuesday morning where he warned that the Fed's coronavirus response will create serious long-term problems for the American economy. この６週で３度もメディアに出てきた、Social Capitalの創始者で元Facebook取締役のChamath Palihapitiyaだ、彼が火曜朝のCNBC「Squawk Box」に出演した、FEDのコロナ対応が米国経済に深刻な長期的問題を引き起こすだろうと、彼は警告する。 Palihapitiya has participated in a series of widely-discussed interviews on CNBC in recent weeks, including here and here . Palihapitiyaはここ数週で、一連のCNBCの長時間インタービューに出ている。 Chamath started the interview by going all-in on the Fed and the White House's response...