Right
around the market peaked on September 2018, Oaktree's iconic founder
Howard Marks published a letter to investors in which he warned that the market conditions made it "a time for caution", to wit:
市場がピークを迎えた2018年9月ころ、Oaktreeの伝説的創業者 Howard Marksが投資家向けレターを発行した、この中で市場環境は「注意すべき時だ」と警告した、見てみよう:
I’m absolutely not saying people shouldn’t invest today, or shouldn’t
invest in debt. Oaktree’s mantra recently has been, and continues to
be, “move forward, but with caution.” The outlook is not so bad, and
asset prices are not so high, that one should be in cash or near-cash.
The penalty in terms of likely opportunity cost is just too great to
justify being out of the markets.
But for me, the import of all the above is that investors
should favor strategies, managers and approaches that emphasize limiting
losses in declines above ensuring full participation in gains. You
simply can’t have it both ways. Just about everything in the investment
world can be done either aggressively or defensively. In my view, market conditions make this a time for caution.
In retrospect, one correction and one (short) bear market later,
Marks was right, and on Monday speaking at a Bank of Singapore event,
Marks recapped what happened, saying "we had one of the most violent
downdrafts" that "I had ever seen,” Marks said. "Nothing much changed except people were first ignoring the bad news and then they were obsessing about the bad news."
So having anticipated, if not exactly predicted, said "violent
downdraft", what was Oaktree - which was building up cash for precisely
such an event - doing? Why buying with both hands.
今にしてみると、一度の調整と一度の(短期的な)ベア相場がその後生じた、Marks は正しかった、そして月曜の Bank of Singaporeのイベントで、Marks は最近の出来事の要点を振り返った、彼が言うには、「我々はとても厳しい下落に遭遇した」それは「私が見たこともないような激しさ」だった、とMarksは言った。「いつもと同じことだが、人々は最初の悪いニュースを無視し、その後同じ悪いニュースに取り憑かれてしまう」。懸念されていた通り、正確に予想されたわけではないが、彼が言う「乱暴な下落」に際し、Oaktreeはーーこういう状況で現金を積み上げていたわけでーーどうしたろう?どうしてもろ手で買ったのだろう。
As Bloomberg writes, while some traders say you should never try to
catch a falling knife, Howard Marks begs to differ, noting that "that’s
exactly what investors should be doing" and adding that the recent
sell-off in U.S. equities was a case in point. As timing the bottom is
impossible, the trick is to buy assets as they decline, before they
start to appreciate, Marks said.
ブルームバーグによると、トレーダーによっては決して落ちてくるナイフを掴んではいけないと言うものもいる、 Howard Marksは違う、ほかでもない「それこそまさに投資家がすべき行動だ」とそして最近の米国株式急落で買いましていた、これがポイントだ。相場の底を正確に見図るのは不可能であり、下落に応じて買いますのがコツだ、再度上昇する前にだ、と Marksは言った。
“I like things better when they are on sale, so December was a better
time to buy,” he said. “I don’t believe that prices having been rising
is a reason to buy, and I also don’t think the fact that prices have
been falling is a reason to sell. And if anything, some of the
overpricing was reduced a little bit.”
Well, because that kind of "safety in numbers" is precisely what
investor - and central bank - psychology is all about, and why it
remains rather "complicated" to become a billionaire on Wall Street.
Howard MarksAmong Marks'
other observations, which should be familiar to readers of his periodic
letter, the Oaktree investor said that while markets are not at extreme
bubble levels and so are unlikely to see extreme crashes, because we’re
in the “eighth inning” of the market cycle, now is a time to be more
cautious than aggressive, repeating precisely what he said in September.
He said the rout in U.S. shares in the fourth quarter of last year
was an example of how sentiment can suddenly shift from excessive
optimism to excessive pessimism, even though fundamentals didn’t change.
The S&P 500 Index tumbled almost 20 percent from late September
through a low on Christmas Eve. Since then, it recovered more than 10
percent through Friday’s close.
Marks also made some macro observations, noting that contrary to
market expectations of a rate cut as soon as 2020, the Fed is likely to
continue to raise interest rates but not as fast as in recent times, as
"uncertainty is higher now than usual" while many large macro
uncertainties and it’s time to be cautious. As a result, Oaktree is
trending towards distressed debts and value investors and “things are
not as expensive as six months ago
Oaktree, which secured new investor capital of about $8.5 billion in
2015 to prepare for market duress, started deploying some of that money
over the past year, however Marks didn’t say where he was investing the
capital.
With the recent rebound in risk assets, Marks said he’s unsure how
quickly Oaktree will invest its funds. At a discussion earlier in the
day in Singapore, he said trends are favoring distressed-debt and value investors, though “we are not there yet.”
Echoing Jeff Gundlach, Marks said that emerging markets generally and
Asian markets are relatively cheap, adding that Oaktree is giving “a
lot of attention” to emerging-market stocks and bonds.
Jeff Gundlachに同調して、Marksが言うには新興国市場特にアジア市場は相対的に安いということだ、更にこう言い加えた、Oaktreeは新興国株式と債券に「多大な興味」を持っている。
The Next Decade Will Likely Foil Most Financial Plans by Tyler Durden Tuesday, Jan 26, 2021 - 15:20 Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, There are many individuals in the market today who have never been through an actual “bear market.” These events, while painful, are necessary to “reset the table” for outsized market returns in the future. Without such an event, it is highly likely the next decade will foil most financial plans. 現在の市場参加者の多くは本当の「ベアマーケット」を経験していない。こういう事が起きると、痛みを伴うが、将来の大きなリターンを可能にするために必要なちゃぶ台返しとなる。これがないと、多くのファイナンシャルプランは今後10年ひどいことになりそうだ。 No. The March 2020 correction was not a bear market. As noted: 2020年3月の調整はベアマーケットと呼べるようなものではなかった。以前にも指摘したが: A bull market is when the price of the market is trending higher over a long-term period. ブル相場とは長期に渡り市場価格が上昇するものだ。 A bear market is when the previous advance breaks, and prices begin to trend lower. ベア相場とはこれまでの上昇が止まり、市場価格が下落し始めることだ。 The chart belo...
The Fed And The Treasury Have Now Merged by Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2020 - 14:21 Submitted by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research As I've argued, the Fed and the Treasury merged. Powell said this was the case today (from his Q&A): 私はこれまでも申し上げてきたが、すでにFEDと財務省は一体化している。Powell自身がこれに当たると今日話した(彼の Q&Aでのことだ): These programs we are using, under the laws, we do these, as I mentioned in my remarks, with the consent of the Treasury Secretary and the fiscal backing from the congress through the Treasury. And we are doing it to provide credit to households, businesses, state and local governments. As we are directed by the Congress. We are using that fiscal backstop to absorb any losses we have. 我々FEDが今行っている一連のプログラムは、法に基づいており、それを実行している、私が注意喚起したが、 財務長官の同意を得ており、財政に関しては議会の承認も得ている。私どもは家計、ビジネス、連邦地方政府に貸付を行っている。議会の意向のもとに我々は行動している。以下ほどに損失が生じようともそれを財政的に支えている。 Our ability is limited...