コントラリアンJ

Copyright ©2009-2019 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD A Recession Indicator With A Perfect Record For 70 Years Is About To Be Triggered by Tyler Durden Fri, 02/22/2019 - 12:30 Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com, The unemployment rate has been a perfect forecaster of a recession in the past 70 years, and it appears to be edging closer to triggering that signal.   “It’s never been wrong. It’s something to watch,” said Joseph Lavorgna, chief economist for the  Americas at Natixis. 過去７０年を振り返り失業率は完璧な景気後退先行指標だった、そしてこれが警告を発し始めていることが明らかになった。「決していま悪いわけではない。注視するときだ、」とJoseph Lavorgnaは言う、彼はNatixis の米国関連チーフエコノミストだ。 As the unemployment rate hovers around 4% (the number reported in the mainstream media)  a more accurate unemployment number is 8.1%.   This takes into account those who have given up on finding work and...

The gold stocks kept marching higher on balance after that anomalous forced capitulation,  carving higher lows and higher highs .  In mid-October with GDX under $19 I explained why gold stocks were  Stocks’ Last Cheap Sector .  I concluded, “These gold miners’ stock prices are wildly undervalued relative to the metal which drives their profits.  So they are overdue for a massive mean reversion and eventually overshoot.” あのアノマリ的強制的降伏以降、金鉱株は揃って値を上げている、higher lows とhighere highsの繰り返しだ。１０月半ばにGDXが＄１９だったころ私はこういう記事を書いた、どうして金鉱株が最後に残された格安セクターか。私の結論はこうだった、「これらの金鉱株は対ゴールドで極端に過小評価されている。というわけで金鉱株は大きな平均回帰の満を持しておりやがてオーバーシュートする。」 This new gold-stock upleg mostly drifted sideways in November, discouraging even early contrarians.  I did my usual quarterly analyses of the newest Q3’18 results of the  major gold miners  of GDX and  mid-tier gold miners  of the GDXJ Van Eck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF.  This critical fundamental home...

Gold Stocks Surge Higher Adam Hamilton     February 22, 2019     2932 Words The gold miners’ stocks surged strongly this week, blasting to new upleg highs.  The mounting gains are naturally driving more interest in this small contrarian sector, shifting sentiment towards bullish.  Despite their accelerating rally, gold stocks still remain fairly low technically and deeply undervalued relative to gold.  So their strengthening upleg likely has plenty of room to run considerably higher in coming months. 今週金鉱株は力強く上昇し新高値となった。上昇が積み上がりこの小さなコントラリアンセクターはさらに注目を集めている、これが心理を強気なものにする。ラリーが加速するが、金鉱株はテクニカル的にはまだ安値で、対ゴールドでとても過小評価されている。というわけで力強い上昇は今後数ヶ月まだかなりな上昇余地がある。 The gold miners’ stocks are ultimately leveraged plays on gold, which overwhelmingly drives their profits.  The much-maligned yellow metal has enjoyed a strong upleg since mid-August, when record gold-futures s...

Copyright ©2009-2019 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD Shocking Philly Fed Collapse: Biggest Drop Since 2011 US Rating Downgrade by Tyler Durden Thu, 02/21/2019 - 09:01 Just in case US stocks needed some more shitty data to surge on, they got it this morning when first the Durable Goods report disappointed, printing below expectations while core CapEx declined for the 3rd consecutive month - its longest stretch below zero since late 2015 - and then the latest Philly Fed print was an absolute shocker, as the regional manufacturing Business Idnex collapsed from 17.0 to -4.1, the first negative and the lowest print since May 2016... 米国株の場合、株価上昇にはもっとひどいデータが必要だ、今朝そういうデータが出た、最初は耐久商品のの報告で失望するものだった、core CapEx コア資本支出は予想を３か月連続で下回ったーーこれだけマイナスになるのは２０１５年遅く以来のことだーーそして次にPhilly Fedが衝撃的だった、地域製造業 Business Index がこれまでの１７．０からマイナス４．１へと急落した、２０１６年５月以来のマイナス...

エリック　クリプトンですかね。 Hello Old Friend... Gold Nears $1,350 Resistance (That Has Repelled It 4 Times In 5 Years) Copyright ©2009-2019 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD by Tyler Durden Wed, 02/20/2019 - 09:10 Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com, The past five years have been baffling for gold bugs. In an environment of massive central bank money creation, rising government deficits and a populist takeover of many countries’ political systems – all of which should be great for safe haven assets – gold has spiked to around $1,350 four times, only to be smacked back down each time. Very demoralizing. この５年はゴールドバグにとって厄介なものだった。中央銀行が巨額の紙幣印刷をするなかで、政府債務は増加し、多くの国の政治体制で大衆迎合政権が受け入れられたーーどれをとっても安全資産にはすばらしいことのはずだーーゴールドは＄１３５０まで４回到達した、ただしいつも跳ね返された。とてもがっかりするものだ。 And now it’s gearing up for another try. そして今また再度挑戦している。 It’s obvious that...

The Little Known Precious Metals Hedge Fund That Returned 502% in Six Years Copyright ©2009-2019 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD by Tyler Durden Tue, 02/19/2019 - 15:15 With under €18 million in assets, the Plethora Precious Metals Fund is a tiny, or "under the radar" as it prefers, hedge fund that you have probably never heard of - and they like it this way. The fund's strategy, according to a Bloomberg article , is to stay small and seek out small companies on the verge of large discoveries. The fund isn’t focused on increasing the amount of assets it has under management to rake in higher fees, either. It is only focused on performance, its founder, Peter Vermeulen said. 資金総額が€１８M以下なので、Plethora Precious Metals Fundはとても小さく、「ほとんどの人の目に止まらない」、ヘッジファンドであり、みなさんもその名前をたぶん聞いたことはないだろうーー彼らも目に止まらないことを望んでいる。このファンドの戦略は、ブルームバー...

Big Trouble in China Housing: Government Bans "Malicious" Price Cuts Copyright ©2009-2019 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD by Tyler Durden Tue, 02/19/2019 - 12:10 Submitted by Investing In Chinese Stocks Pizhou, Fujian has a solution to falling home prices: ban them. They're not alone in using this strategy. Other cities have told developers to reverse price cuts and one went so far as to punish a developer's creditors. PizhouとFujian福建省では住宅下落対策を持っている：下落を禁止した。この戦略を使っているのはこの２省だけではない。他の都市でもデベロッパーは値下げ撤回を指示された、これに従わないとデベロッパーへの出資者が罰せられる。 iFeng: 房企“恶意降价”被紧急叫停，房价到底能不能降 On the finite price, the price can not rise. And the property market environment is so cold, the price of the house is not good to sell. It is not easy to cut prices. After the new term "price reduction attempt" was born, a new word appeared in ...

もう買うべき国債が枯渇し、黒田さんがゴールドを買いはじめようものなら話題になるでしょうね。 Guess Who's Buying Gold? Copyright ©2009-2019 ZeroHedge.com/ABC Media, LTD by Tyler Durden Fri, 02/15/2019 - 08:11 Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, I’ll warn you right off the bat, I have been waiting to write this piece for the past few days. You see, it’s a gold post, and as much as I try to take a bigger picture view, the trader-in-me still hates writing a bullish piece just as the market is about to have a minor correction. So I often get cute and wait for a dip before I publish. But the gold decline refuses to materialize and I have decided to just post my piece - hoping I am not top-ticking this recent rally, but fearing it’s probably the surest sign we are headed lower over the short run. 私はすぐに警告しよう、私はこの記事を書くのを数日待っていた。ご存知の通りゴールドに関するものだ、私はできるだけ俯瞰図を書くよ...